I have an informal wager running with a handful of people on the following question:
What year will cars that are autonomous-capable constitute over 50% of the cars sold in that model year?
I began this wager in 2015, and I said "within 7 years". Giving myself credit for the fact that 2016 model year cars start being sold in late 2015, I'm going to clarify my prediction to say that the 2023 model year is my target prediction.
I acknowledge this is optimistic. Here's a list of the beliefs that drive my prediction (which I may update from time to time on this blog post):
- Technology will