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The sunrise of digital media forgery, and the sunset of trust

on Fri, 06/08/2018 - 17:59

2018 - 2020 are going to be years that will be seen in history as the dawn of an era when the only way you can trust what you are hearing / seeing someone say is to see it in-person.  It will be the sunest of the era when you can trust that what you are hearing from a person speaking who is captured and rebroadcast digitally is actually what they said.

This is because the application of machine learning and other artificial intelligence techniques is advancing into areas we (society) have historically taken for granted. Three things combined over the last several days to give me pause.

Factors driving self-driving car adoption

on Tue, 10/11/2016 - 12:57

I have an informal wager running with a handful of people on the following question:

What year will cars that are autonomous-capable constitute over 50% of the cars sold in that model year?

I began this wager in 2015, and I said "within 7 years". Giving myself credit for the fact that 2016 model year cars start being sold in late 2015, I'm going to clarify my prediction to say that the 2023 model year is my target prediction.

I acknowledge this is optimistic. Here's a list of the beliefs that drive my prediction (which I may update from time to time on this blog post):

  1. Technology will